Kai Lee

10Y−2Y inversion historically precedes recession by 6–24 months.

Tightening = green · Widening = red · Source: ICE BofA via FRED

• 29

  JUL
  CPI m/m

  Global · Macro
  0d
• 29

  JUL
  CPI y/y

  Global · Macro
  0d
• 29

  JUL
  Trimmed Mean CPI m/m

  Global · Macro
  0d
• 29

  JUL
  Federal Funds Rate

  US · Central Bank
  0d
• 29

  JUL
  FOMC Statement

  US · Central Bank
  0d
• 29

  JUL
  FOMC Press Conference

  US · Central Bank
  0d
• 30

  JUL
  BOE Monetary Policy Report

  UK · Central Bank
  1d
• 30

  JUL
  Monetary Policy Summary

  UK · Central Bank
  1d
• 30

  JUL
  MPC Official Bank Rate Votes

  UK · Macro
  1d
• 30

  JUL
  Official Bank Rate

  UK · Macro
  1d

• Yield Curve

  The 10Y–2Y spread has turned marginally positive at +35 bps, consistent with early-stage curve normalization following a period of inversion. Long-end term premium is visible, with the 30Y–10Y spread at +48 bps.

• Rate Levels

  The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.61% reflects a restrictive rate environment, with real yields remaining meaningfully positive across the curve. Long-end rates declined 4 bps on the session.

• Policy Expectations

  The 2-year yield at 4.26% sits above the 3-month rate at 3.90%, with the forward curve implying limited near-term easing.

• Volatility

  Equity implied volatility is at moderate levels, with the VIX at 18.2, consistent with normal market functioning and limited acute uncertainty.

• FX Markets

  EUR/USD at 1.1367 reflects dollar softness, consistent with a narrowing of US–Eurozone rate differentials or an improvement in global risk appetite. USD/JPY at 163.9 reflects significant yen weakness, a function of the Bank of Japan's historically accommodative policy stance relative to G10 peers.

• Equity Markets

  U.S. equities are declining modestly, with the S&P 500 down 1.07% on the session.

• Credit Conditions

  Investment-grade spreads at 81 bps are within the range consistent with stable credit conditions and moderate risk appetite. High-yield spreads at 281 bps are compressed, reflecting strong risk appetite in below-investment-grade credit.

• Inflation Expectations

  Breakeven inflation at 2.20% is broadly consistent with the Federal Reserve's 2% long-run target. The 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.43% reflects materially restrictive real interest rate conditions.